Late Bloomers: Turning a strong second half of 2011 into a 2012 hit
There are those who subscribe to the idea that when a baseball player has a strong second half one season, it means he’s in line for good numbers the following season. This can be particularly true for a player who may have struggled in previous seasons, one who finally got a chance with extra playing time, or even a younger player just starting to put things together. A good example of this recently was José Bautista. In 2010 he seemingly came out of nowhere to lead the major leagues with 54 home runs. However, to the keen fantasy baseball observer, this was heralded by a late-season surge in 2009.
By taking a close look at some baseball players who became upstarts in the second half of 2011, we can get an idea of what it may portend for 2012. As we know, finding those ‘diamonds in the rough’ on the draft table next year can certainly help your chances in the world of fantasy baseball.
Lucas Duda (NYM) –
Sometimes it’s all about timing. When Mets regular first baseman Ike Davis sprained his ankle, he opened the door for Duda. With a particularly strong second half of 2011 and Carlos Beltrán being traded, Duda may have secured a spot as the everyday RF in 2012. His second half has included 30 Rs, 10 HRs, 37 RBIs and a .322 slash line. /. 404/.545. He looks like he’s seized the opportunity to get him into the big leagues.
Josh Willingham (OAK) –
The power has always been there (career average 24 HRs for 150 GP), but playing time hasn’t been consistent for Willingham. With a strong second half in 2011 that includes 16 HR, 48 RBI, .369 OBP, .558 SLG and a nifty .925 OPS, Willingham enters 2012 as a free agent likely to find regular work patrolling LF and providing power in middle of a row
James Loney (LAD) –
Sure, he has disappointed fantasy owners who felt his power would develop, but Loney contributes in 2 major categories (AVG and RBI) consistently. He’s also had a good second half this season with a .312/.379/.532 slash line. He’s also walked 20 times against just 25K, so his skills as a decent hitter are legit.
JJ Hardy (BAL) –
Hardy’s 15 home runs in the second half have led all major league shortstops. He adds 41 RBIs and he’s going to have a power hitter in a very weak position. It’s always been about staying healthy for Hardy, who has eclipsed his previous career record of 26 HRs (set in 2007 while with the Brewers). As a free agent in 2012, he could be a good fantasy option in SS.
Mike Naples (TEX) –
After a first half in which he hit just a .232 BA, Napoli ignited the afterburner after the All-Star break. He led all catchers (min. 175 PA) in the second half in HR (14), BA (.385), OBP (.468) with a major league-best 1,158 OPS. This bodes well for a receiving position in 2012 that will once again be shallow. Given his eligibility at 1B, as well as his ability to pick AB as DH, Napoli could well enter 2012 as one of the top two catchers in fantasy.
Javier Vazquez (FLA) –
After a dead first half (5.23 ERA, 6.2 K/9), Vazquez picked up speed on his fastball and has had an incredible second half this season. His numbers after the break: 2.35 ERA, .93 WHIP, 9.1 K/9. Notably, Vazquez has improved his strikeout/walk ratio from 1.94 in the first half to 5.40 in the second. He could be a very interesting pick going into 2012.
Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco) –
Though he barely fell behind in the first half (3.87 ERA, 7.9 K/9), Bumgarner has emerged as ace material since the break. His record before the All Star was 4-9, since the break it has been 8-3. However, the wins and losses have not been a true indication of talent in San Francisco this year due to poor offensive support. With 2.43 second-half ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 4.68 K/BB and 9.0 K/9 stats, Bumgarner is positioned as the Giants’ co-ace. He considers it a serious material keeper coming out of 2011.
Keeping a close eye on the statistical performance of the second half of 2011 may translate into strong numbers for 2012. Let’s hope these latest developments help your fantasy baseball team thrive next year and beyond.