Ness’s Notes (May 15)

TNT will broadcast both NBA games tonight (Detroit/Cleveland at 7:05 ET and San Antonio/Dallas at 9:35 ET), as all series will have completed four games after tonight’s game. The Heat currently lead the Nets 3-1 following a 102-92 victory on Sunday afternoon, while the Clippers and Suns are tied at 2, following LA’s 114-107 win last night.

My free game for Monday is at the Hou Astros over the SF Giants at 8:05 ET. I’m spending tonight in MLB but I’m a 22* in the NBA playoffs as I look to extend my current four-game winning streak in the postseason (I won with the Clippers last night). Regulars know my 22*s are my highest star rated plays and my high level playoff shooting (20 and 22*s plus LEGEND) are 9-3 75% ATS in this year’s postseason.

The Pistons lead their series with the Cavs 2-1 and are favored by six points in Game 4 tonight on a total of 183 1/2. The Mavs are also up 2-1 in their series with the Spurs and are 2 1/2-point favorites tonight on 190 1/2 total.

The home teams got off to a great start in this year’s postseason, winning 30 of the first 39 games played. However, they finished the first round on a 1-5 SU and ATS run and their woes have continued into the second round. Home teams are 8-6 SU and just 5-9 ATS after 14 games in this round. That means home teams have gone 9-11 (6-14 ATS) in the last 20 playoff games.

The ‘overs’ have dominated this second round so far, with 10 of the 14 games exceeding the published total. That continues a trend where nine of the last 10 first-round games have gone over the total, meaning 19 of the last 25 playoff games have gone over. And defense is supposed to win championships?

The famous or infamous “Zig-Zag” theory has been very mixed up during the postseason. He started with an impressive 19-8-2 ATS to start the first round, but finished the round on an eight-match losing streak. However, the “zig-zaggers” have won eight of the first 10 games of the second round, bringing the overall record to 27-18-2 or plus-7.2 units.

monday games

What about the Pistons? Losing Game 3 wasn’t much of a surprise, as Detroit has now lost 10 of its last 11 Game 3s on the road. However, what is surprising is the team’s offensive blackout. The Pistons scored 113 points in Game 1, dropped to 97 in Game 2, and reached 77 points in Game 3. The Cavs were able to win Game 3 with a strong fourth.

Cleveland entered the fourth quarter having shot just 17 of 56 (30.4 percent) while scoring 53 points. However, they outscored the Pistons 33-21 in the quarter, going 11 of 15 FG and 9 of 9 FT. James scored 15 points in the quarter and finished with his second triple-double of the playoffs (10-21-10). Detroit should bounce back, but Piston’s backers will have to pay dearly as Detroit is currently a six-point option.

For Cleveland to tie the series, you’d think James would need more help. Hughes is likely to miss again (perhaps not bad news, since he’s only shot 31.8 percent in the postseason) and neither Ilgauskas nor Gooden have played well. Ilgauskas is averaging just 8.8-5.8 in his last five games, while Gooden has scored in double figures just once in seven games (averaging 7.3 PPG) since going 24-16 in Game 2 of the series. of washington.

Is this really the year of the Mavs? Dallas has taken a 2-1 lead in its series with San Antonio and history tells us that in 23 previous playoff series under Duncan, the Spurs have trailed after three games just four times, ultimately losing the series! every time! Duncan has been brilliant, averaging 31.3 PPG and 11.3 RPG (he averaged just 18.3 PPG against Sacramento) but like James, he’ll need help.

Perhaps most surprising has been San Antonio’s inability to stop Dallas from scoring. The Spurs were second to the Grizzlies in PPG allowed this year (88.8 to 88.5), but they allowed Dallas to average 108.5 PPG while reaching the free throw line 93 times in Games 2 and 3. Nowitzki set a franchise record in the playoffs for FT tries (24) and shooting (21) in Game 3. However, he sprained his ankle late in Game 3 and may not be 100 percent tonight.

MLB ratings

Heading into a new week (interleague play coming this weekend!), the Padres own the longest active winning streak in the majors at five straight, with the Tigers and Phillies each having four straight wins. The Padres trailed the Dodgers 5-0 going into the bottom of the ninth on April 30, but rallied to win that game and have won 14 of 16 since. The Phillies also began their comeback the same day, having won 13 of 14.

The Indians own the longest active losing streak at six straight losses and are now just 17-21 after opening the season 6-1. The Cubs are next with four straight losses, but that’s not even half of it! The Cubbies have lost 12 of their last 13 games, getting outscored 75-28 in the process.

I spoke last week about all the high scoring games and it should be noted that only six of the 30 MLB teams have played more ‘unders’ than ‘overs’ in Sunday games. Four of those six teams have played just one more under than over, with only the Rockies (15-21-2) and Tigers (11-23-3) truly “under” teams to date. The list of ‘over’ teams includes Florida (24-9-2), Toronto (23-11-2), Minnesota (23-12-2), Baltimore (23-13-2) and Cleveland (23-13 -two). two).

The Royals may possess the worst record in MLB at 10-25, but five other teams have been more “money burners” during Sunday’s action. The Royals are minus $857 (at 100 per game), but the five worst teams in MLB are the Indians 17-21 (minus $888), the Marlins 11-24 (minus $928), the Nationals 13-25 ( under -$1,085) and the 11-27 Pirates (under-$1,605). The money leaders are the Tigers 24-13 ($1,170 more) and the Reds 23-15 ($979 more).

Ness Notes is available Monday through Friday at 1:00 ET.