NFL Week 5 Points Difference Handicapped Picks
1. NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) VS. New York Jets ******* WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
2. TENNESSEE TITANS (-8) VS. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons came on the board last week with a beautiful home win over Houston. Now they head to Tennessee to face the retiring Titans who impressively defeated the Saints in New Orleans at MNF. The Titans have now covered their last 8 games and they always put in a good effort that shouldn’t be any different against Atlanta. If the Titans hadn’t come out of a goodbye, they might have been susceptible to disappointment, but the bye week only strengthens their chances against a still-weak Falcons squad. The Falcons are in bed too, qualifying in a disappointing 53-104-4 situation on the road here. The Titans defense is playing very well and they should suppress resurgent Joey Harrington, who did most of his damage in the past two weeks against poor secondaries. THE CHOICE: Tennessee Titans (-8)
3. WASHINGTON RED SKINS (-3.5) VS. Detroit Lions: The Lions are heading to Washington to take on a Redskins team that is still struggling to score points, but has been playing well defense outside of the second-half collapse against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a tough home win against the Bears and will likely be susceptible to disappointment here against a non-division opponent. The Redskins have had bye-week advantage to jump-start their offense and this team has guns on Clinton Portis and RB’s Ladell Betts to go with wide receivers Santana Moss and Antwan Randle-El. The Lions are terrible on defense and that will help the ‘Skins even more in their effort to get going offensively. This one is still difficult to call, as these teams have close capacity, but they go with the home team who have had the extra week to prepare. THE CHOICE: Washington Redskins (-3.5)
4. Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) VS. S T. LOUIS RAMS ******* WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
5. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16.5) VS. Cleveland Browns: Another big difference for the unstoppable Patriots here and the only thing that could prevent them from covering is the fact that they are in a disappointing situation after a dominant MNF win over the Bengals. The Patriots are clearly the elite of the NFL right now and the talent disparity between these two teams is huge. The Patriots have already covered such a high margin this year when they beat the Bills in Week 2, so so far they have shown no mercy to anyone. The Browns also apply a 53-104-4 negative ATS road disappointment situation and at this point you really shouldn’t be betting against the Patriots under any circumstances. THE CHOICE: New England Patriots (-16.5)
6. HOUSTON TEXANS (-5.5) VS. Miami Dolphins ***** THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS OF THE WEEK.
7. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) VS. Carolina Panthers: The Saints must hold out and do it fast because their season is out of control after they were embarrassed by the MNF at home against Tennessee. The Panthers are in a similar situation as they are coming off a terrible loss at home to the Bucs and will play again without QB Jake Delhomme. It would be hard to see the Saints lose back-to-back home games, but the extra half point is the problem with this one. The Panthers seem to play better on the road and are a well-trained group that should respond with their season on the brink. The Panthers are in a good spot here as well, qualifying in a 40-9-3 ATS recovery scenario. The Saints should win the game, but it will be for only 3, so score the points. THE CHOICE: Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
8. PITTSBURGH STEELS (-5.5) VS. Seattle Seahawks ******* THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS OF THE WEEK.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ******* THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS OF THE WEEK.
10. INDIANAPOLIS FOALS (-10) VS. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Colts remain at home after an impressive kill from the Denver Broncos on Sunday, while the Bucs maintained their status as the biggest upset of 2007 by beating the Carolina Panthers on the road. Back-to-back road games are always tough, but QB Jeff Garcia has this team believing they can win against any opponent. The Buc defense has also played very well and they look like the robust units that dominated the league from 1998-2003. The Colts are clicking all cylinders offensively as usual, but will come to this one hit hard with RB Joseph Addai and WR Marvin Harrison dealing with injuries. While both should play, this could serve to slow down Indy’s machine-like offense. However, the Bucs are in a bad position as they are classified in a negative 67-132-3 ATS situation on the road. This is a difficult one to call in here due to injuries on both sides, so better stay away if you can do it without choosing this game. THE CHOICE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10)
11. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ****** WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
12. DENVER BRONCOS (-1.5) VS. San Diego Chargers ****** WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
13. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) VS. Chicago Bears: The Bears are a mess and now they have to go to Green Bay to face the Packers 4-0. Green Bay is behind the great play of quarterback Brett Favre and a strong defense that has played better than many could have expected from this young group. The Bears will stick with Brien Griese at QB, but no matter who plays, this offense can’t seem to get out of its way. The Bears qualify in a very profitable 47-10-4 ATS road scenario, but the Packers will be encouraged to kick a big division rival while they are in the dumps. The Bears are also in the negative situation of playing back-to-back games on the road, so this is a draw where you want to stay away from gambling. THE CHOICE: PASS
14. Dallas Cowboys (-10) VS. BUFFALO BILLS ***** WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.