NBA Totals – Anticipate the pace of the game

There are many ways to analyze basketball totals. One method I look at is trying to anticipate what the pace of the game might be. The Houston Rockets, for example, like to play games at a slow pace. That’s because head coach Jeff Van Gundy loves to emphasize defense in every game. When he was coaching the Knicks, they were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, one that didn’t care about winning a game 84-81.

Now that he’s the Rockets’ coach, that strategy stuck with him. The Rockets are second in the NBA in points allowed and first in field goal defense. When playing a team like San Antonio, you can expect a slow-paced game with a tough defense and no easy shots.

But one angle within this angle that’s even more important is how the team is doing LATELY. That’s more important than the season averages. Memphis, for example, became a wide-open offense midway through the season when a new coach took over. The Clippers are suddenly having trouble scoring points and that’s related to the fact that starting point guard Shaun Livingston is out for the year (knee injury) and Sam Cassell isn’t playing much with some nagging injuries.

Let’s examine a game I gave this week when Philadelphia played Atlanta. If you look at the overall stats for the season, you see a couple lousy offensive teams. The 76ers are averaging 95 points per game, sixth-worst in the NBA, while the Hawks are dead last with 93 points per game. Based on that, you can expect a low scoring game and a low total from the punters.

Look at how those teams have played of late, though: Atlanta is on an 8-3 overall streak, while Philadelphia has scored 99 or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Their offenses are gaining more cohesion and confidence. Atlanta has scored 100, 106, 99 and 104 points in the last four games. The 76ers struggled offensively after trading star Allen Iverson, which was to be expected. But that was several months ago, which means that the other players on the team had to learn how to pick up the slack, distribute the ball and find new players.

So what happened? The punters set a low total at 185. However, Atlanta shot over 49% and finished with 104 points. The teams combined for 196 points, more than 10 points more than the total for an easy pass. My clients and I get paid easily.

Just as revealing in the scorecard was the balanced score. You never thought of even scoring when Iverson was on the 76ers, but that game had 5 guys in double figures.

Other factors regarding the totals are: Does any team play without rest? Is this the third game for a team in four nights? Players not resting means that the first thing to lose is their legacies. Tired teams are less likely to have the energy to play good defense. Also, look at balanced scoring and potential mismatches, such as a good defense against a team that has poor defenses.

As you can see, I cashed in my 10-star Game of the Day on the 76ers/Hawks over the total. And so can you, by understanding the totals and looking at how teams are performing in recent weeks, rather than all season.